Trump scrabbles to avoid mid-terms setback

Donald Trump is afraid of losing in the 3 November midterm elections which replace the whole of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.

At a recent rally he claimed “I’m going to be impeached” should the Republicans lose. Meanwhile some of his close allies are jumping ship ahead of November. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, White House Counsel Dave Warrington, and more have already resigned.

Trump is nonetheless doing his best to save himself. He is trying to publicise a report by the US Census Bureau, for instance, claiming that at least 24,000 non-citizens voted illegally in the 2020 election, a number Trump has claimed will “explode” when more voting records are analysed. The report is basically rubbish. It was an unauthorised report with no authors taking credit, reliant on dodgy data as no federal database of citizenship status exists, and the report makes no claims as to which party non-citizens supposedly voted for.

However, the Supreme Court has given the go-ahead for the US Postal Service to strict circulation of postal ballots to people who appear on approved lists of accredited citizens to be compiled in the coming weeks.

Rigging

Successful Republican rigging has only really happened on the state level so far. Republicans are winning a case in Missouri to keep a referendum off the November ballot over their gerrymandering to destroy a Democrat seat. It will be settled on 2 September when the Republican controlled state Supreme Court hears the case.

Especially since, by the US Constitution, elections, even federal elections, are run by the states, not by any federal agency, it will be difficult for Trump to rig the midterms in his favour in any significant way. He will continue trying to push and justify his SAVE Act, but those close to him may very well get increasingly cold feet and continue to ditch him. He could use the constitutional rule by which each House of Congress decides who has been validly elected to it, but that is high-risk.

Trump’s other tack is to create spectacular distractions. Probably he hoped that his Iran war would work that way, but in fact it is turning into a quagmire and losing him support. He has reignited the tariff fire, with new 50% tariffs on many imports from Canada.

Regardless of whether Trump can rig the midterms, his lies and attacks on democracy are serious, and even a majority for the (irresolute and uncombative) Democrats in both houses of Congress will have difficulty stopping him from acting on his “unitary executive” theory, the idea that the President has total control over all executive functions of government.

The solution has to come from working-class fightback, organised by the unions and the left, such as we have seen the beginnings of this year with the Minneapolis general strike, mass May Day rallies, and smaller workers’ assemblies in the wake of ICE killings.