Support Ukraine; oppose targeting civilians

As the battlelines are relatively static, Ukraine and Russia are increasingly locked into a war to destroy economic, civilian targets. It is the wrong fight for Ukraine to choose, and is not one it is well-placed to win.

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of sunflower seeds, wheat and corn. Around 90 percent of its exports go through Black Sea ports around Odessa. However, following Russian attacks on ships from mid-July very few ships are moving.

According to Ukraine’s port authority between 1 July and 11 August there were 160 attacks on port infrastructure, 87 attacks on civilian ships in ports and 68 on ships in the maritime export corridor. 169 ships entered the ports in July, but only 7 in the first 11 days of August.

Ukrainian grain exports fell by 75% in the first two weeks of August.

In August Ukraine sunflower and rapeseed oil exports are predicted to halve to 300,000 tons.

The Russians have responded to the extremely effective mid-range drone attacks launched by Ukraine against oil tankers and vessels containing exports, including grain in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea. The three largest grain terminals at the Russian port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations after being hit by Ukrainian drones and Russian wheat exports are expected to halve in August.

Farm exports account for 60 percent of Ukraine’s export earnings. Ukraine provides around 6% of the world’s wheat and 11% of corn from a harvest of 60mn tonnes.

Ukraine has facilities to store only 11mn tonnes of grain and is attempting to transport produce by road and rail through Europe. It is being impeded by poor current relations with Poland, new stricter trade rules with the EU, low water levels in the Danube, and Russian attacks on rail infrastructure and bridges.

Road transport is expensive and also inefficient. One large ship can transport the equivalent of 5,000 truck-loads of corn.

Railways can only move about one million tonnes per month out of Ukraine. Transport costs have surged by $50 per ton.

World wheat prices have increased 35% over the past year. Added to the Black Sea disruption are increased fertiliser and fuel costs resulting from the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and poor crops due to heatwaves and drought.

According to Oxford Economics global food prices are set to increase by 11.8 percent this year and that will impact most heavily on the world’s poorest people.

Economic damage

The destruction and disruption of grain and transport infrastructure by Ukraine and Russia is only one aspect of the increasing use of economic damage during Ukraine’s defence of its territory from Russian attack.

Russia is ramping up the production of ballistic missiles which Ukraine finds difficult to counter. Ukraine is desperate for surface to air Patriot missiles which are being denied by US President Donald Trump. Ukraine has now done a deal with France to buy a new European anti-missile system, but a continuing shortage of defensive missiles means Russian attacks have been effective, hitting warehouses, apartment blocks, transport infrastructure.

On 14 August Ukrainian drones destroyed a hypermarket in Russian-occupied Donetsk; Friday 21 August Russian drones destroyed a shopping centre in Kryvyi Rih killing 16 people and injuring 130; 24 August two large stores in Odessa were burnt down by Russian drones. All these attacks should stop: they will not alter the course of the war, but they do kill and bring misery to civilians.

For Ukraine this reflects a new ability to use its expanding drone and missile capabilities against oil and commercial targets inside Russia and occupied Ukraine. Ukraine has hit over 20 Wildberries warehouses causing vast damage to both the Wildberries’ delivery hubs and the contents, perhaps causing $5bn of damage. Wildberries is a vast Russian on-line retailer and Ukraine is now moving on to attack Ozon’s delivery infrastructure. Ozon is Wildberries’ main competitor.

Petrol price rises and rationing is now again widespread across Russia with limits of 50 litres on petrol in Moscow and St Petersburg. Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries in late July. The Ukrainian attacks are also causing shortages across central Asia as Russia controls exports and imports petrol.

Ukrainian attack on Russian oil infrastructure have caused Putin political problems, but will not stop his military. In fact Putin has doubled-down.

Solidarity supports Ukraine but believes it should only attack clear military targets. That is the only effective way to defeat Russian imperialism.