Labour still slumping in Scotland

Overshadowed by the Makerfield by-election, two Westminster by-elections were held in Scotland the same day, triggered by the sitting SNP MPs having been elected to Holyrood in May: Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

In 2024 the SNP had cruised to victory in Aberdeen South: Over 15,000 votes, a third of all votes cast, and a majority of nearly 4,000. Labour (11,455 votes) and the Tories (11,300 votes) came second and third.

But in the 18 June 2026 by-election it was the Tories who cruised to victory: Over 14,000 votes, 49.5% of all votes cast, and a majority of over 6,000. Labour came fourth, behind the SNP and Reform. Its vote slumped to 1,550, and it managed to save its deposit by just 0.4%.

Tories winning a by-election is always bad news. What made this win even worse was that the central issue in the by-election was the North Sea oil and gas industry. The by-election was “a referendum on oil and gas,” as the Scottish and national Tory leaders both put it.

The Tories made the demand for more licences for North Sea drilling the central plank of their election campaign. Labour policy remains one of opposition to the issuing of new licences for drilling.

The SNP looks both ways at the same time. Of course, it wants to save the environment. But it also advocates that applications for new drilling licences should be looked at “on a case-by-case” basis.

The SNP had even claimed that this “in-between position” and “unique stance” would help them win the by-election.

Aberdeen South was the first time that the Tories have won a by-election in Scotland since 1973. But there is no reason to believe that their win represents the start of an upsurge in their electoral fortunes, rather than a one-off rooted in the importance of the oil and gas industry for Aberdeen.

But the by-election does underline the work that needs to be done to build support for a green transition, in order to counter calls for a continuing reliance on fossil fuels.

In 2024 the SNP had only narrowly hung on to Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Its candidate had won the seat with a majority of less than 900, with Labour taking second place.

But last week’s by-election was an easy win for the SNP, which increased its majority to over 5,000. Labour trailed in a poor fourth, behind the Tories and Reform, with its share of the vote falling by over 20%.

According to the SNP, the by-election result showed that voters had “rejected the politics of division and hate” and had made it clear that “Scotland’s future lies with independence”. There are three problems with that wishful-thinking analysis.

Firstly, the combined Reform-Tory vote (presumably “the politics of division and hate”) was less than a thousand votes behind the SNP tally. Hardly an outright rejection.

Secondly, the four other parties which contested the seat are all anti-independence. The SNP vote was around 4,000 less than the total vote of the anti-independence parties. Hardly a statement of support for independence.

And thirdly, compared with 2024, the SNP vote in the by-election fell by nearly 40%. The reason for the increase in their majority was the collapse in the Labour vote. Hardly a full-blooded endorsement of the SNP.

It is always a mistake to read too much into any by-election results, especially given the usually low voter turnout in a by-election – 38% and 31% in the case of these two by-elections.

But the loss of Aberdeen South and the poor showing in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry will certainly add to the conflict in the SNP – already split many ways.

The by-elections also contain a clear and obvious lesson for Labour. In both by-elections its vote collapsed. Without a fundamental change in its politics, not just in its national and Scottish leadership, that collapse will continue.