Ukraine asserts itself against Belarus

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has openly threatened the Belarussian regime, the Russian satellite state on Ukraine’s northern border.

In a social media post on the evening of Friday 19 June Zelenskyy gave Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko one week to remove electronic relay equipment which Zelenskyy claims is helping Russia’s mass drone attacks target Ukrainian towns.

Russian signal stations are located in two Belarussian regions which border Ukraine.

If Lukashenko does not “remove that equipment” Zelenskyy wrote, “we will”. Zelenskyy added, “a week will be enough for him to do that.” In May the commander of Ukraine’s drone forces, Robert Brovdi, said Ukraine has identified, “500 targets in Belarus.”

In May Zelenskyy said that military reports indicated Belarus was building roads towards the Ukraine border and placed new artillery positions near Ukraine.

Belarus has said it has deployed the hypersonic, medium-range Russian Oreshnik missiles on its territory.

On 12 June Lukashenko gave an interview to the Al Arabiya television channel during which he said it would be “absolutely unacceptable” for Belarus to be drawn into the war. Unusually he admitted that “Belarus is very vulnerable militarily… everything in Belarus is in plain sight of the Ukrainian military. We understand perfectly well that our main critical infrastructure facilities – production and logistics – would come under attack.”

Lukashenko also issued an apology to Zelenskyy, saying he might have “gone overboard” in past criticisms.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, said, “Moscow is increasingly dragging Belarus into its war, turning it into a platform for aggression.” Earlier this year Belarus and Russia conducted joint nuclear exercises and it appears that Belarus is improving military infrastructure in areas along its border with Ukraine.

Ukraine believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to use Belarus to widen its war against Ukraine which is currently floundering. Officials argue that this is an aspect of a more general threat against Europe.

Belarus was used by Putin’s armed forces to launch the Russian military drive towards Kyiv during the first phase of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Although Ukraine does not believe that there is an immediate threat of invasion from Belarus it is strengthening its defence lines in border areas, digging new anti-tank ditches, placing concrete dragon’s teeth and laying down razor wire.

Since the start of the year Ukraine has registered an increase in drones coming from Bryansk region in Russia, some flying through Belarus and into Ukraine. Ukraine claims Russia has built five new drone bases along its border with Belarus in order to attack Ukraine through Belarussian airspace.

This is a significant shift in Ukrainian policy. Why? And why now?

Firstly, Ukraine is concerned by the US’s shift in policy towards Belarus.

US sanctions on the Belarus’ dictatorship have been in place for over twenty years. However, following the outrageous rigging of Belarussian elections in 2020, and the mass protests that followed, the US imposed further sanctions and attempted to increase the isolation of Belarus.

During US President Donald Trump’s second term the US has negotiated the release of political prisoners in return for sanctions relief for Belarus’ important potash industry. The main EU powers maintain a harder, isolationist stance towards Belarus, which Ukraine wants to continue.

Secondly, for the past six months Ukraine has been gaining in military confidence and is becoming more politically assertive as a result.

There are many areas in which Ukraine is still very vulnerable to Russian power (economic size, manpower, defence against missile and drone attacks, airpower). However Russia’s spring offensive in Donbass has failed, they are losing extraordinary numbers of troops for little territorial gain, infrastructure in Russia is being regularly and increasingly destroyed by Ukrainian missiles and drones, and Russian logistics in occupied Ukraine are under very significant strain as Ukraine burns lorries and bridges used to supply Russian troops.

Last December Zelenskyy, for the first time, met the exiled leader of the mainstream Belarussian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in Vilnius, Lithuania. Previously, following a policy associated with the former Ukrainian official and Zelenskyy’s right-hand man, Andrii Yermak, Ukraine had avoided high-profile links with the Belarussian opposition to avoid provoking Lukashenko.

However, Yermak was removed from office in late 2025 under investigation for extravagant corruption.

In late May Tsikhanouskaya made her first official visit to Ukraine to meet Zelenskyy.

Tsikhanouskaya stated that Lukashenka’s apology to Zelenskyy indicates Ukrainian power. “[Ukrainian strength] has exposed the weakness of a dictatorship built on lies, fear and dependence on Putin.”