Trump and Iran: the workers and poor pay

As I write (25 May) the vague outlines of a possible US-Iran agreement are being leaked.

In return for billions of dollars currently frozen under the US-led sanctions regime on Iran, and an easing of the sanctions themselves, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to shipping. A 60-day negotiation period would begin, starting in Pakistan on 5 June, during which restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme would be finalised, with the US demanding that, minimally, Iran is not able to produce nuclear weapons.

The tentative agreement would also require fighting to cease on all sides, including Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel

The Israeli government will certainly oppose such a deal which would limit their ability to use military force, make concessions to Iran on its nuclear policy and seemingly fail to address the threat posed by Iran’s ballistic missiles.

According to Lebanon’s health ministry Israel has killed 3,111 people in Lebanon and wounded over 9,400 since 2 March. More than one million people, or one fifth of the population, mainly Shia people from southern Lebanon, have been displaced by Israel’s bombs and invasion. Despite an Israeli-Lebanon “ceasefire”, imposed on Israel’s right-wing government by US President, Donald Trump, Israeli military action and house demolitions have continued, as have drone and missile attacks from a scrappy and battered Hezbollah.

On 24 May Israel issued new instructions to the residents of ten more Lebanese villages to abandon their homes. This is despite a new 45-day ceasefire coming into force on 15 May.

Israel has the right to defend itself, but these actions are utterly disproportionate and go far beyond “defence”.

The US-Iran deal may or may not happen, and may or may not hold. The two sides are far apart, hate and distrust each other. Despite the vast damage caused by US-Israeli bombing of Iran, the fascistic Iranian Islamists feel they have an advantage, having largely blocked ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

What is certain is that Trump has created a bloody mess which due to his imperial arrogance and uncomprehending political stupidity has created worldwide economic chaos. The UN predicts an additional 32mn people across the world could be pushed into extreme poverty as a result of the Iran war. Surging energy costs are fuelling food, petrol and fertiliser inflation, and hit the poor hardest of all.

Iran

Trump’s various maximal war aims, issued as his mood swung and as the logic of the war unfolded after 28 February, have not been met. In particular Trump’s promise to the people of Iran that the clerical dictatorship would fall has not happened.

Quite the opposite. The Islamic Guards (IRGC) has a firm grip on the Islamic state and they are brutally repressing all forms of opposition inside Iran.

On Sunday 24 May Mojtaba Kian was hung, at least the 37th political prisoner executed in Iran since 17 March. On 17 May Iran’s police chief, Ahmadreza Redan, a thug who supervised the murder of perhaps 20,000 democracy protesters in Iran between 8-10 January 2026, claimed that the regime had arrested 6,500 people since the start of March.

The regime-imposed internet shutdown has now lasted for more than 80 days.

A wave of lay-offs have hit Iranian workers caused by the destruction of industrial plant and the shortage of parts and raw materials. Perhaps two million people are unemployed. Others are owed wages. Inflation is spiking and is now above 100%.

Iran’s Health Ministry claims 3,468 people were killed during the bombing campaign and over 26,500 injured. In Israel 26 were killed and 7,791 injured.

The world working class has no interest in this war and plenty of reasons to fight for it to end.

USA

Trump, with typical contempt for truth and facts, and garbling as usual, claimed on Thursday 21 May that his Iran war is, in fact, very popular with Americans: “I think it’s very popular when you, when they hear that it’s having to do with nuclear weapons, weapons that could take out Los Angeles, could take out major cities very quick.”

Fortunately Iran has no nuclear weapons, nor ability to bomb LA (8,000 miles away). US polling shows that 60% oppose the US war on Iran, with only 33% supporting it. 81% of Americans say they are feeling the strain of increased petrol prices, 50% higher than when the war began and averaging more than $4.50 per gallon.

US workers have spent an estimated extra $40bn in additional petrol and diesel costs since the end of February.

Trump’s net approval rating stands at minus 21%, with 57% of Americans disapproving of his presidency.

On Thursday 21 May the Republican leadership in the US House of Representatives was forced to cancel a vote aimed at ending Trump’s Iran war because they thought they would lose, despite the Republican majority.

Trump’s Republican party is still expected to lose the House in November’s mid-term elections (latest projections give the Democrats a 75% chance of a majority), but a series of Supreme Court decisions in late April and early May have tilted the contest towards the Republicans. By allowing the weakening of the Voting Rights Act, the far-right majority on the Supreme Court has given US States controlled by Republicans more freedom to dilute the vote of Black Americans by making the redrawing of electoral boundaries easier.

So far the Trump government appears to have spent $25bn up-front on the military action against Iran, with the long-term costs estimated to be up to $1tn when broader and long-term economic impacts are factored in.

Trump can find money to kill Iranians but has cut hundreds of millions of dollars in public health funding in the US.

Stopping Trump

But who will stop Trump? That’s a good question. Unfortunately Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall gives some ridiculous answers to the question he himself posed. Tisdall, without a single word of criticism of the Iranian regime, argues that European states and others should impose sanctions and expel US ambassadors, ban McDonald’s and boycott the US-hosted football World Cup.

The strong suspicion is that Tisdall doesn’t like football and disapproves of McDonald’s. Perhaps he’s a cricket and avocado on toast chap. Whatever, a trade war is a stupid thing to advocate: the workers and poor won’t gain from deliberately provoking an economic crisis. Workers’ Liberty is not for chaos, we are for workers’ control and power.

Political sanctions won’t stop Trump and a ban on McDonald’s and a boycott of the World Cup would not be workable and — imagining it could happen — would create a such a serious domestic backlash that the glib Guardian columnist, writing without thought, responsibility or sense that his policy might be implemented, might even drop his latte.

Such are the thin ideas of the liberal left.

The only social force that can overthrow the Iranian regime and make life much better for the people of Iran is the potentially very powerful Iranian working class. Workers’ solidarity is not a quick fix. It requires systematic, thoughtful effort in the unions and Labour party. But this is the effective answer, our answer, from our class standpoint.

Those that continue to suffer most are the Iranian workers and those displaced by Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Israeli and US bombing only brings misery.

Our people are the workers. Side with them.

Israel out of Lebanon! Oppose Hezbollah!

For a secular republic and workers’ government in Iran!

Back American workers’ opposition to Trump. Back Standing Together, the anti-war Palestinian-Jewish social movement in Israel!