Democracy a long way off under Sharaa

Syria is now electing its first Parliament since the fall of Assad. The electorate is 6,000 in regional subcommittees, overseen by an 11-person Supreme Committee, appointed by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Sharaa himself will select 70 members of the new Parliament, with the regional committees electing the other 140.

Voting was postponed in several districts, including the Druze-majority Sweida, where violence erupted over the summer, and in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Kurdish-controlled areas in the northeast. No rescheduled dates for these elections have been given. Results released show that women secured about 4% of seats so far. They were approximately 14% of the candidates. While the electoral college guaranteed quotas for women, the elections themselves did not. In some districts, no women were running.

The new MPs will serve for 30 months. Sharaa could use his appointments to bring in more women, members of minorities, but anyway is sure to appoint his own supporters, or those who will not prove to be any effective opposition. Political parties are still banned, and all candidates ran as individuals. Any legal political organisation for Syria’s working class seems a long way off.

Sharaa, who has been busy making international trips and seeking to build relationships with other leaders in the post-Assad Syria, has now met with Putin, who was one of Assad’s strongest allies and has now given him asylum. Sharaa has issued an arrest warrant for Assad, but the talks did not publicly include any demand for his return to Syria.

Putin wants to preserve access to the Hmeimim airbase and Tartus port, allowing continued access to the Mediterranean and Africa. Syria is reliant on Russian energy expertise and wants investment. A deal may well materialise.

Following the sectarian tension that has flared since Sharaa took power, even tentative moves to democratic participation are, according to UN envoy Geir Pedersen, on a “knife-edge”. Sharaa has endorsed UN-suggested investigations into the violence and pledged to deal with perpetrators. But the pledge may prove empty if some of the war crimes turn out to have committed by people close to Sharaa. And where Sharaa does not control, local strongmen and militias hold power.

The Kurdish question remains unresolved. The US had brokered an understanding in March that would start the integration of the SDF into the national military by the end of 2025. Yet in Aleppo in September, SDF forces clashed with the Syrian army.

The US flew SDF commander Mazlum Kobane to Damascus for talks with Sharaa. Kurds want autonomy and constitutional guarantees, plus protection from both Turkish-backed and Sunni Islamist militias. Sharaa, who continues to rule out federalism and whose previous apparent concessions to the Kurds have been undone by the government’s own actions, seems unwilling to budge.

Something like an official opposition to Sharaa now exists. A mix of civil-society figures, exiles and other anti-Assad forces, the Syrian Centenary Collective, has called for the government to work with it to bring Syria together. A Syrian-British billionaire, Ayman Asfari, and George Sabra, a Christian activist jailed by Assad, are key figures.

Continued but incomplete sanctions relief by Western governments and new Gulf state investment could start a process of economic reconstruction. But it will not be on the terms of the Syrian people.