Ukraine is in danger

Urgent threats to Ukraine’s right to self-determination, identity, democracy and the freedom for workers to organise in independent trade unions and political organisations, are posed by a combination of Russian battlefield gains and the coming Trump government in the US.

The US Biden administration’s policy of helping Ukraine enough for it not to lose to Russia, but not enough to help it win, is unravelling.

In some desperation, last week, Biden allowed US long-range missiles to strike inside Russia. The UK did likewise, and Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used against a command centre in southern Russia. Putin responded by using a new hypersonic ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, normally loaded with nuclear warheads, against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

The war may escalate from here. The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, cancelled a session because of the possible use of this new weapon against the capital, Kyiv.

But the implied Russian threat of a nuclear attack and its use of North Korean troops are also political acts aimed at nudging Trump’s new administration.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has denounced the lack of military aid, stating that only ten per cent of the materials promised have been delivered to the battlefront in 2024. If US aid is cut by Trump, Zelenskyy says, “Ukraine will fight on”. He adds that if the US pulls its support, Ukraine will lose the war.

That would be a disaster, and in the first instance, for the Ukrainian working class.

If Putin wins in Ukraine it also places the Baltic states, Moldova, and Kazakhstan under greater threat.

Territory

Ukraine lost over 1,000 sq km of territory during the months of September and October and the rate of losses is increasing, despite staggering numbers of Russian casualties. Ukraine is being pushed back in the areas of Kursk it overran in August. US and British military analysts now believe the Donbas front might collapse.

The danger hanging over Ukraine is that it will be forced to sign away territory and much of its political independence in a deal dictated by negotiations between Trump and Putin, then reluctantly accepted by the EU states.

Trump may hope for an economic and political boost from signing off on a peace with Russia, at Ukraine’s expense.

Trump’s supporters in the US Congress held up arms aid to Ukraine from December 2023 to May 2024. Some far-right Republican leaders are openly pro-Putin and Trump, personally, seems to admire the Russian dictator.

Something similar has happened before. In 2015, following the Russian seizure of Crimea and land in Donbas, France and Germany forced Ukraine to cede rights by signing up to the one-sided, pro-Russian agreements Minsk 1 and 2. Ukraine is a poor country and felt it had no choice but to accept.

The Europeans had hoped that they could stabilise relations with Putin’s Russia and continue profitable economic relations.

However, Putin prepared for the next assault on Ukraine, and the full-scale invasion was launched in 2022. Putin openly declares that he does not accept Ukraine’s existence. Now, once more, Ukraine is being pulverised by Russian imperialism.

Zelenskyy claims that Russian drone and missile attacks have damaged 321 Ukrainian port infrastructure facilities since July last year.

More that 3,500 educational institutions have been damaged, and over 400 completely wrecked since 2022. 1,800 medical facilities have been damaged. 210,000 buildings have been destroyed.

Over the weekend of 16-17 November Russia launched 120 missiles and 90 drones at energy infrastructure, the eighth such attack in 2024. DTEK, a large Ukrainian energy company. said its facilities had been attacked over 190 times since February 2022. The intention is to demoralise Ukrainian civilians.

Russian occupation means terror, forced deportations, Russification, the destruction of democratic rights. Ukraine is now investigating over 100,000 cases of alleged war crimes.

Ukraine has been denied the ability to defend itself adequately by the unwillingness of Western powers to provide an adequate arms supply (particularly mines, shells, and air defence systems) so that it could do so.

However, the internationalist left will continue to defend Ukraine and the Ukrainian labour movement. Victory to Ukraine!