Teetering on the brink of wider war

The drone attack that killed three US troops in Jordan on 28 Jan has led to an escalated US response to Iranian-backed militias. The US says it has hit 85 targets in Iraq and Syria in early February.

Especially given how long it has taken the US to respond, this will have been far from a decisive blow against the militias and their arms caches. Since 7 October, there have been over 160 attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq. 28 Jan was the first resulting in soldier deaths, which meant the US was almost certain to respond.

The targets are the local militias, but the message it sends is to the Iranian regime and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who provide the logistics, equipment and, at times, personnel to pro-Tehran groups. The “axis of resistance” so-called, the network of armed groups from Iran to Yemen and Lebanon, all have the potential to expand the war in the Middle East since 7 October. So far Iran has held back, unconfident about its ability to sustain a full-scale war, or one it is directly involved in.

The bombings, which the US says will continue, go together with diplomacy. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been on a tour of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the West Bank.

Unlike some Republican hawks and evangelical leaders, the US administration is cautious about pushing Iran too far. Arkansas Republican Tom Cotton’s calls for “devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces both in Iran, and the Middle East” are not likely to get a hearing. Biden and Blinken do not want a war. Iran faces a choice of how to respond. It wants to assert itself as the leading regional imperialist power in the Middle East. It has long hoped that increased incremental attacks via its proxies or pro-Iran militias would drive US forces out of their small bases in Syria and Iraq.

Fortunately, the Iranian regime fears a big war which it cannot sustain or secure popular assent for. Iranians are weary of the long-term involvement in Syria, and the domestic political crisis, protest and strike movement that erupted following the death of Jina Mahsa Ahmini has left the regime still vulnerable.

Kataib Hezbollah, the strongest Iran-backed group in Iraq, confirmed on 30 January that they would suspend attacks on US targets.

Iran does not have everything its own way. The militias are reliant on Tehran for support, but they are not simple proxies. Many compete with each other, and groups like the Houthis have their own agenda.

Biden is wrestling for hegemony in the Middle East with few allies and no confidence in the ability of US military might to prevail. Thomas L Friedman. writing in the New York Times, argues that an emerging “Biden doctrine” is contingent on finding some form of demilitarised Palestinian state that the US can recognise and get wide Middle East support for,

That would mean Saudi Arabia recognising Israel and working on containing Iran as a power-broker across the region. The US military strikes signal an unconfident and shaky tactic. The risk of a wider war remains.