German Leopard 2, American M1 Abrams and British Challenger tanks, together with highly effective armoured vehicles from the US and Sweden, have finally been promised to Ukraine.
Lt. Col. Voloshin, a Ukrainian tank commander fighting in eastern Ukraine, says his unit is using Soviet T-64 and T-72 tanks dating back to the early 1980s. The Wall Street Journal quote him complaining: “For these heaps of metal, one day of fighting is followed by four days of repairs.”
The Ukrainian army really needs modern tanks and has been asking for these weapons for many months.
German and US objections to supplying battle tanks have been overcome eventually by calculations made about battlefield probabilities, and political assessments, rather than moral dilemmas about supplying weapons to Ukraine. The German and American governments believe Putin and the Russian state has no intention of settling with Ukraine soon and, moreover, intend a new push to try and take much more ground in Ukraine.
Forbes reports that parts of Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army have redeployed some forces from Belarus, where they were rebuilding after twice being seriously defeated by the Ukrainians (in Chernihiv, north of Kyiv, in March last year, and again around Izyum in early September). The 1st Guards 2nd Motor Rifle Division has moved into Luhansk oblast in eastern Ukraine, probably in advance of a Russian offensive there.
The US-led Western powers intend to prevent Ukraine from being overrun by Russia, but, simultaneously, to refuse Ukraine weapons and the quantity of weapons it needs to force Russia out. The West really wants a deal with Russia to end the war, but can see no immediate end in sight.
The tanks that the West has promised are in relatively small numbers. Ukraine is demanding 300 advanced, main battle tanks. Western military analysts think 100 could change the dynamics on the battlefield.
On Sunday 29 January Ukrainian crews arrived in the UK to begin training on the Challenger tanks. But the UK is only sending 14, and delivery will be by the end of March. Only 31 US and 14 German tanks have been agreed so far. Some have not even been built yet.
Germany unblocking the right to supply Leopard tanks will allow the Baltic states, Poland and others in Eastern Europe to donate Leopards too. Poland is willing to give 60 tanks.
But Ukraine needs much more. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has asked for the US long-range ACTEMS missile system to allow Ukraine to strike arms depots positioned out of range of its artillery. Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk has requested (soon to be decommissioned) Tornado aircraft from Germany. The German Defence Minister has replied that it is out of the question that Germany will give aircraft to Ukraine. The Western balancing act continues.
The fact that the Russians know that new tanks will arrive in Ukraine, but in several months’ time, also increases the likelihood of a major Russian offensive in the near future.
Workers’ Liberty remains committed to a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine is right to fight to defend its freedom, and the international workers’ movement is right to offer solidarity to Ukraine in its fight against Russian imperialism, and to the Ukrainian working class.
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