The price of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG), a cheap alternative to petrol used by car drivers in Kazakhstan, was hiked on New Year’s Day.
The cost of a litre of LPG had been 50 tenge (about 10 pence) for most of 2021, jumping to 120 tenge on 1 January. Drivers began to protest.
In Zhanaozen, an oil producing town of 160,000 in the country’s west, roads were blocked.
The regime is particularly wary of actions by the oil workers in Zhanaozen, where a massacre of strikers took place in December 2011.
There were more officially registered strikes in Kazakhstan in the first half of 2021 (39) than the entire period from 2018-20 (30). Almost all of the recent strikes took place in the Mangystau oil-producing region in the west, where workers demanded wage increases to combat inflation.
Most strike action was taken by oil workers or employees in associated industries, but health care and public transport workers also took industrial action.
Most of the strikes won some concessions on their wage demands.
Across the Mangystau region similar public demonstrations were held in many towns. Unregistered political parties called rallies and pickets in the capital, Nur-Sultan, and in Almaty, the commercial centre of the country.
The internet began to go down and news websites were blocked.
By the evening of January 3 the Prime Minister’s office had declared that the price of LPG would be reduced in all petrol stations in Mangystau. In the town of Aqtau on the Caspian Sea protesters continued a rally, not believing the concession would actually be enacted. When Mangystau’s governor Nogaev turned up in Aqtau town square to repeat the government’s promises he was chased off by the crowd, who shouted, “Get out! We’re tired of fairy tales!”
The protests in Almaty then turned very violent, very quickly. Almaty is in the south of the country, nearly 2000km east of Mangystau.
Major gun battles and explosions were heard in Almaty. It was reported that police stations had been stormed and large numbers of public building were ransacked and burnt.
18 members of the security forces are reported killed together with many dozens of protesters.
Such violence diverges widely from what has happened before in Kazakhstan.
President Kassym-Jomart Toqaev declared a state of emergency and on 5 January asked Russian president Putin to help provide security. Russian paratroops were in the country within hours and it seems that 2500 troops from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are now in Kazakhstan. Toqaev announced a shoot-to-kill policy.
The Kazakh government now claims to be in control although gunfire can still be heard on Almaty’s streets. The government states 6000 protesters have been detained.
One possible explanation for the extreme violence in Almaty is that a part of the state machine was moving against Tokayev, using the protests as a cover for a coup. If Tokayev could not trust his own police and army that would also explain the call for Russian military help.
Tokayev, a former Soviet diplomat, was handpicked by former president Nursultan Nazarbaev who stepped down in 2019 but continues to hold on to a lot of power behind the scenes. Nazarbaev’s base in the capital Nur-Sultan, which he named after himself.
Much of the public’s anger has been directed at Nazarbaev and his corrupt family who have run a repressive kleptocracy since the fall of the USSR.
Karim Masimov, until last week head of the internal security service, and a man closely aligned with Nazarbaev, was arrested on 8 January and accused of treason. This looks like Tokayev is attempting to consolidate his power.
Of course the presence of Russian troops will not come cost-free for Tokayev. Putin will expect Kazakhstan to back Russian policy more closely.
And Putin also has his own concerns. The Kazakh people may well react against the presence of foreign troops who have been brought in to keep a local dictator in power. And here is another regime in chaos on Russia’s border, whose rulers run a system which looks remarkably like the one Putin presides over in Moscow.
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