Letter: A 0.32% swing

Submitted by martin on 23 February, 2021 - 9:31

Part of an ongoing debate: see here for all the contributions

It’s been said that “Biden won easily” in the 2020 US presidential election. In fact, tilt the results by a uniform 0.32% swing from Biden to Trump, and Trump would have won.

That 0.32% swing would have tipped Georgia (which Biden won by 0.24%), Arizona (0.3%), and Wisconsin (0.63%) to Trump, and produced an Electoral College tie. Biden would still have had a big majority in the popular vote, but with an Electoral College tie the presidency is decided by the House of Reps with each state, small or large, having one vote. Trump would have won.

A uniform 0.59% swing from Biden to Trump would have tipped Pennsylvania (1.17%) to Trump, and Trump would have won the Electoral College.

Colin Foster, London

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