Brexit evasion is putting Labour behind in the polls

Submitted by martin on 10 January, 2019 - 8:27 Author: Martin Thomas
Labour and Brexit

Latest polling, in early January, shows the Tories 6% ahead - their biggest lead since the 2017 general election, and at a time when the Tories are in chaos.

Individual polls are at best accurate to within a few per cent each way. But a moving average of all recent polls, pooling the random variations, shows that a general election today would probably see Labour's vote go down 6% and the Tories win an absolute majority: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election.

Supporters of the Labour leaders claim that their "triangulation" on Brexit is necessary to avoid Labour losing pro-Brexit votes.

The argument is shameful: Labour should decide what's right, and then work to win a majority for that, rather than shape its policy by trying to tack with public opinion.

And it doesn't work even in its own terms. Full-on Brexiters will see Labour's hints of a softer Brexit as betrayal. The big majority of Labour voters, pro-Remain, are disgusted or disquieted by the evasions.

An early general election won't happen until after the Tories have got into yet further trouble, so probably the Tories would not do as well as a snapshot today suggests. But votes lost by the Tories between now and then are likely to go to Ukip, the Lib-Dems, or abstention, rather than Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn's personal approval ratings have slumped, and despite May's impasse he is now way behind her on those ratings: details here.

Chasing the polls isn't doing well even in the polls. Labour should get off the fence and campaign for a new public vote and a vote to Remain.

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