Iraq drifts towards civil war

Submitted by Anon on 13 August, 2006 - 5:28

by Paul Hampton

The reality of Iraq’s drift towards civil war and break up has been inadvertently exposed by leading ruling class figures in the last week.

William Patey, the UK’s outgoing ambassador in Iraq sent a final memo to the Blair government, in which he wrote: “The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.”

Patey’s view was reinforced the following day by the top US commander in the Middle East, General John Abizaid, who said Iraq could move toward civil war if the sectarian violence is not stopped. “Sectarian violence is probably as bad as I have seen it”, Abizaid told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

This realism contrasts with the rhetoric of Bush, Blair and the Iraqi government. The day before Patey’s memo was leaked, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said that Iraq would take over security duties by the end of the year.

Juan Cole, the US academic with a generally clear-sighted assessment of the situation in Iraq, argues that Talabani’s claim is a pipedream. He believes that “there is no prospect of Iraqi government military and security forces getting a handle on the situation in most of the country unaided, and they aren't even doing very well with massive aid.”

Patey also warned that the Mahdi army is the biggest threat to sectarian civil war. He wrote: “If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Mahdi Army from developing into a state within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority.”

The situation in Lebanon has impacted negatively on Iraq. The US military has admitted an increase in attacks on its soldiers in the last month. According to Juan Cole, “Iraqi guerrilla leaders are said to have found it much easier to recruit insurgents and gain support for direct attack on US troops because of Israel's war on Lebanon”.

Lebanon has also had the effect politically of mobilising thousands in Iraq behind Islamist parties.

Muqtada al-Sadr’s supporters organised a demonstration of 100,000 against Israel's war in Sadr City on 4 August. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq held a large demonstration on the same issue two days earlier.

Cole reports that demonstrators chanted, “Death to America, Death to Israel!” They carried large posters with images on them of Sheikh Hasan Nasrullah, the leader of the Hizbullah, and Muqtada al-Sadr. Demonstrators chanted, “We are the troops that Nasrullah is calling for, and we shall burn Haifa!” Some wore white funeral clothing, announcing their willingness to risk martyrdom and burned US and Israeli flags.

Patey’s memo also suggests that the timescale for a decisive change in the situation is now quite short. He said that “the position is not hopeless” but that “the next six months are crucial” This explains why the US is sending thousands of extra troops to Baghdad and the British are stepping up operation in the south.

Even if the occupation forces and the Iraqi government get through the next six months, Patey said he expected that the situation would be “messy” for five to 10 years. He added that he doubted whether the Iraqi government could “sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself”.

All this makes the prospects for Iraqi labour movement even more fraught, bringing an added urgency to our solidarity work. It is now conceivable that in the next year this nascent movement could be smashed by reactionary forces. We should redouble our efforts to strengthen the Iraqi labour movement, the only genuinely progressive force in the country.

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