Libya: from revolution to reform?

Submitted by Matthew on 6 April, 2011 - 2:22

Political and military developments in Libya have continued to move at a significant pace over the last few days.

The initially successful rebel onslaught against Qadaffi forces in mid-Libya seemed to promise a decisive attack on the strongholds of Tripolitania and relief to rebel-held Misurata. The potential capture of Sirte would have initiated the end of the regime as it was both the military and ideological heartland of the regime. This did not happen.

The combination of NATO airstrikes and the rag tag rebel army was not sufficient and over recent days the rebels have retreated back to the mid-line of Libya at Brega where there is fierce fighting between the opposing sides for the port and the oil line. Brega is north of the main Tripoli-Benghazi highway but its ownership is critical for both sides as it opens up the line of march either to the east or to the west for the opposing forces. As recently as the last two days it has been taken and retaken by the rebels.

The wider political context is also developing — Turkey, Greece and Malta have been involved in talks with the Libyan foreign ministry around some form of negotiated settlement — potentially a transitional government in the hands of the sons of the dictator — Saif al-Islam and Saadi Qadaffi — the ex-despot of Benghazi.

Both of these had reputations as “moderates” prior to the uprising but they have signalled that a transition without their father’s involvement is not welcomed. Certainly at this point the exile option is not being mooted.

The UN may look at a transitional government without Qadaffi kindly, particularly bearing in mind the political weakness of the Libyan Transitional Council holding sway in the east, but France, the US and the UK would certainly be reluctant to perpetuate any remnant of a familial Qadaffi regime — whatever the form of transition — whether outright democracy or constitutional monarchy.

France, Qatar and Italy have recognised the National Transitional Council but there are very real doubts on behalf of the US and the UK about the composition of the movement. NATO have warned against “flickers” of al Qaeda and Hezbollah in the movement. It is very clear that some of the best fighters in the uprising have been Islamists although it is not clear whether they are linked to the Libyan Islamic Fighting group.

Three historically significant moments did develop over the last week — the destruction of a rebel convoy by coalition forces, the Misurata blockade breaking aid ship taking civilian wounded to “Free” Benghazi and the first oil tanker to be sent out with a supply from the rebel-held east.

What is perhaps significant about each of these episodes is the level of support that they display for the air strikes and the coalition intervention on the ground. Rebel forces, in advance of any apology from NATO, noted that the fault for the mistaken strike was random celebratory firing from the column, and visibly the level of support on the Misurata ship for NATO was a serious mandate from those in the thick of the fighting that the support of the coalition has been decisive in halting massacres of civilians in the Qadaffi-held west.

There were two issues that we pointed to last week that have been confirmed as recent events have passed — the strength and the mandate of the pro-Gadaffi forces in the west and which shouldn’t be underestimated and the exact composition of the rebel movement in the east and what it chooses to do next.

There are a number of directions that the situation could take of which the two most likely are a negotiated settlement and transition across the whole of Libya or a tenuous partition regime leaving the old regime standing for a period whilst a democracy of some sort consolidates itself in the east.

A military victory across the whole of Libya from the rebels, or one across the whole of Libya for the regime, seems less likely — largely because of the military weakness of the rebels in the first part and the intervention of the coalition in the second. But there is one caveat to this — military success in the Qadaffi-held west could be possible as part of a wider series of uprisings amongst the people of Tripolitania.

This is happening to some extent already but confidence in the rebel’s capacity to take the east may bolster more democratic uprisings in the heartland of the despotism and signal at least the beginning of the end for its vile tyranny.

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