On-the-spot report on the moves to a general strike in France

I have arrived in France. I am filing this report from a computer in Tolbiac where a general assembly is about to take place. It is not yet on the point of being occupied by its students, that will not be possible politically for another day or two.

I spoke to comrades at the Paris offices of the NPA last night. This is a quick summary of what they told me. It is not yet a question of generalising the strike out of the sectors where a reconductible strike has been called - but a matter of seeing whether the strike 'sticks' in transport, haulage and petrochemicals and docks. That will decide what happens next and that will be decided in the next week. I am not convinced of this but French comrades tell me that a youth/student strike movement could have a politically substantial catalysing effect.

The union officials did not choose the reconductible strike: pressure from regional union federations (in particular regions of the CGT) forced the hand of the top bureaucracy. The CGT leadership is unanimously against the reconductible strike, but local offices and regions are in favour. Although the Catholic-moderate CFDT union has a larger membership on paper the CGT has the greater social weight and is politically decisive in the labour movement.

A recent survey shows that 70 per cent of French people are in favour of prolonged strike action over pensions. Many moderate workers think that the problem is that Sarkozy will not negotiate. If sarkozy declared negotiations it might make it easier to defuse the strike. But Sarkozy, like the Juppe govt of 1995, is determined not to negotiate but to win 'by force'. Sarkozy is now seen as "going too far" even by segments of the ruling class, especially over the question of the expulsions of Roma, and his minister Fillon has distanced himself from Sarkozy publicly.

How then are the union leaderships to prevent an uncontrollable strike? The line coming from CGT head office is that "we want to make the movement as big as possible and not allow it to become radicalised and marginalise itself" - they counterpose getting a lot of people out for one day mobilisations (massifying the mobilisation) to having a prolonged reconductible strike in the most militant sectors (minorising the movement). That is also the line of the PS leadership ("intensifying the movement does not necessarily mean radicalising it"). The question is whether this line will win politically. The decisions are not yet being taken in assemblees generales but in meetings of union activists. This may change over the next days. The other question is the political battle in workplaces and the local structures of the CGT over whether to continue the strike or return to isolated one-day actions.

Thus far it is impossible to tell how successful the first strike day will be and what the mood in the workplaces will be as regards continuning the strike.That will come out today and in the next few days. NPA comrades are trying hard to create general assemblies in colleges and workplaces, keep the substantial FE college strike movement going and create local inter-workplace assemblies. It is a question of convincing workers to choose to keep striking and not return to isolated days of action. Creating local sovereign assemblies and winning the argument over the strike is crucial and it is anyone's game as yet.

There are other things to report - 44 hospitals across France are on strike but due to a faulty union structure this movement is not well reported. Petrol and dock workers in Marseilles have been out for a fortnight. Road hauliers are set to strike, and could be decisive politically if they block roads. But if not, not.

I will report when things become clearer and I will report on the demonstration after it has happened. Now it's time for the general assembly at Tolbiac. Only a week of term has elapsed and most university AGs are small - about 100-200 people - but this is likely to grow.