Sectarian attacks have reached a new high in Iraq. Most are bombings by Sunni-sectarian militias aimed at Shias.
The link with the civil war in Syria is not tight. The driving force seems to be frustration among the Sunni Arab minority (15 to 20% of the population, but politically dominant for centuries before 2003, including under the Ottoman Empire) against the Shia-Islamist-dominated regime of Nouri al-Maliki.
Maliki’s support for Assad (he lived in Syria, then Iran, when in exile from the Saddam Hussein regime), is a subordinate element. Iraqi oil production has increased 50% above its 2005-8 levels, and the price of oil, despite a dip in 2008-9, has tripled since 2005. The resulting revenues have helped Maliki rule with little regard for Sunni allies or Sunni sensibilities.
A survey has ranked Iraq’s government as one of the most corrupt in the world (169th out of 174). In provincial elections in April this year, Maliki’s “State of Law” party, having absorbed Fadhila, consolidated its hold despite a drop in votes. Iyad Allawi’s more secular party, once favoured by the US and capable of winning more votes than Maliki in the March 2010 parliamentary elections, did poorly. Many Sunnis abstained. No polls were held in the three regions within Kurdistan or in Kirkuk or in the two Sunni-majority provinces of Anbar and Nineveh.
As well as Sunni-Shia, Arab-Kurdish conflict is also a destabilising factor. Maliki has declared “illegal” an oil deal signed in mid-May between the Turkish government and the regional government of Iraqi Kurdistan.
The city of Kirkuk is still disputed. The city and its oil-rich environs were “Arabised” by Saddam, and have since been re-“Kurdified”. A referendum to decide its status was due in November 2007, but still hasn’t happened.
Late in 2012, Maliki moved Iraqi troops to the south of the city, and the Kurdish regional government moved Kurdish troops to the north. Questions of the status of the large Turkmen minority in Kirkuk are also moot.
The Iraqi labour movement is still a force against sectarianism, but still weak, harassed, and in need for international support.
Iraq: the timeline
• March 2003: US and allies invade Iraq, quickly overthrow regime. Looting and collapse of regular social administration follow. US sets up a Coalition Provisional Authority, which exacerbates chaos by disbanding the Iraqi army and much of the state administration. Sectarian conflict, intertwined with attacks on US forces mainly by Sunni-Islamist militias, grows.
• April to August 2004: Warfare between US forces and Shia-Islamist faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr
• June 2004: US hands over to an Iraqi “interim government” of its choice, led by Allawi, which serves to May 2005
• January 2005 and December 2005: parliamentary elections
• 2006-7: Sectarian conflict rises to simmering civil-war pitch
• May 2006: Maliki becomes prime minister
• Late 2007 and 2008: Sectarian conflict eases. A significant section of Sunni militias have accepted US sponsorship and funding (“Sahwa”)
• November 2008: US signs agreement to withdraw troops
• May 2009: Last UK troops withdrawn
• March 2010: Elections in Iraq. Allawi’s party gets highest vote, but Maliki eventually (November 2010) forms the new coalition government
• December 2011: US troop withdrawal complete.
